1: variables year, production;

2: parameter n = 1000;

3: parameter mu = 2000;

4: parameter sigma = 10;

5: tolerance = 1E-15;

6: function production = n*NPD(year,mu,sigma);

7: plot;

8: data;

Number of observations = 144

Maximum allowed number of iterations = 500

Convergence tolerance factor = 1.000000E-015

Stopped due to: Parameter convergence.

Number of iterations performed = 6

Final sum of squared deviations = 1.4852107E+002

Final sum of deviations = 3.0560205E+000

Standard error of estimate = 1.02632

Average deviation = 0.65002

Maximum deviation for any observation = 3.37596

Proportion of variance explained (R^2) = 0.9874  (98.74%)

Adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra^2) = 0.9872  (98.72%)

----  Descriptive Statistics for Variables  ----

Variable    Minimum value   Maximum value    Mean value     Standard dev.

----------  --------------  --------------  --------------  --------------

year            1860            2003          1931.5        41.71331

production           0.005           26.62        6.593146        9.073928

----  Calculated Parameter Values  ----

Parameter  Initial guess   Final estimate   Standard error      t      Prob(t)

----------  -------------  ----------------  --------------  ---------  -------

n           1000        1719.90837        42.54306      35.73  0.00001

mu           2000        1997.86545       0.8008207    2492.27  0.00001

sigma             10        24.4382088       0.6031985      40.51  0.00001

----  Analysis of Variance  ----

Source     DF   Sum of Squares    Mean Square    F value   Prob(F)

----------  ----  --------------  --------------  ---------  -------

Regression     2        11625.55        5812.776    5518.42  0.00001

Error        141        148.5211        1.053341

Total        143        11774.07