1: variables year, production;

2: parameter n = 1000;

3: parameter mu = 2000;

4: parameter sigma = 10;

5: tolerance = 1E-15;

6: function production = n*NPD(year,mu,sigma);

7: plot;

8: data;

Number of observations = 144

Maximum allowed number of iterations = 500

Convergence tolerance factor = 1.000000E-015

Stopped due to: Parameter convergence.

Number of iterations performed = 6

Final sum of squared deviations = 1.4852107E+002

Final sum of deviations = 3.0560205E+000

Standard error of estimate = 1.02632

Average deviation = 0.65002

Maximum deviation for any observation = 3.37596

Proportion of variance explained (R^2) = 0.9874 (98.74%)

Adjusted coefficient of multiple determination (Ra^2) = 0.9872 (98.72%)

---- Descriptive Statistics for Variables ----

Variable Minimum value Maximum value Mean value Standard dev.

---------- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------

year 1860 2003 1931.5 41.71331

production 0.005 26.62 6.593146 9.073928

---- Calculated Parameter Values ----

Parameter Initial guess Final estimate Standard error t Prob(t)

---------- ------------- ---------------- -------------- --------- -------

n 1000 1719.90837 42.54306 35.73 0.00001

mu 2000 1997.86545 0.8008207 2492.27 0.00001

sigma 10 24.4382088 0.6031985 40.51 0.00001

---- Analysis of Variance ----

Source DF Sum of Squares Mean Square F value Prob(F)

---------- ---- -------------- -------------- --------- -------

Regression 2 11625.55 5812.776 5518.42 0.00001

Error 141 148.5211 1.053341

Total 143 11774.07